Classifying European cigarette consumption trajectories from 1970 to 2015.

OBJECTIVES: To systematically code and classify longitudinal cigarette consumption trajectories in European countries since 1970. DESIGN: Blinded duplicate qualitative coding of periods of year-over-year relative increase, plateau, and decrease of national per capita cigarette consumption and categorisation of historical cigarette consumption trajectories based on longitudinal patterns emerging from the data. SETTING: 41 countries or former countries in the European region for which data are available between 1970 and 2015. RESULTS: Regional trends in longitudinal consumption patterns identify stable or decreasing consumption throughout Northern, Western and Southern European countries, while Eastern and Southeastern European countries experienced much greater instability. The 11 emergent classes of historical cigarette consumption trajectories were also regionally clustered, including a distinctive inverted U or sine wave pattern repeatedly emerging from former Soviet and Southeastern European countries. CONCLUSIONS: The open-access data produced by this study can be used to conduct comparative international evaluations of tobacco control policies by separating impacts likely attributable to gradual long-term trends from those more likely attributable to acute short-term events. The complex, regionally clustered historical trajectories of cigarette consumption in Europe suggest that the enduring normative frame of a gently sloping downward curve in cigarette consumption can offer a false sense of security among policymakers and can distract from plausible causal mechanisms among researchers. These multilevel and multisectoral causal mechanisms point to the need for a greater understanding of the political economy of regional and global determinants of cigarette consumption.

Health technology assessment and judicial deference to priority-setting decisions in healthcare: Quasi-experimental analysis of right-to-health litigation in Brazil.

The constitutional right to health in Brazil has entitled patients to litigate against the government-funded national health system (SUS), claiming access to various health treatments including those excluded from the health system's benefits package. Courts have tended to rely on a single medical prescription to judge these cases in favor of individual patients and against the health system. The large volume of cases has had a substantial financial impact on the government's health budget and has created unfairness in accessing healthcare. To change courts' behavior, a new health technology assessment (HTA) body - CONITEC - was created in 2011. Its creation was accompanied by an administrative procedure that made decisions about the health system's benefits package more transparent, accountable, participative and evidence-informed. It was expected that this HTA system would bring more legitimacy to the government's priority-setting decisions and promote deference from the courts. This study tests whether Brazil's new HTA system succeeded in encouraging judicial deference by analyzing a stratified random sample of 13,263 court decisions for whether the existence of a CONITEC report resulted in less frequent court orders to provide treatment for individual litigants. The results show that the creation of CONITEC did not change courts' behavior; courts still decide in favor of patients in most cases. Indeed, even when there was a CONITEC report recommending against government funding for a particular healthcare treatment, the vast majority of the relatively few patients who were unsuccessful in obtaining a health benefit at their first court hearing later obtained a favorable decision after appealing to a higher court. This finding was confirmed through an interrupted time-series analysis that did not find an impact of having a CONITEC report on courts' willingness to override a government priority-setting decision. In fact, CONITEC was rarely cited in court decisions, even when litigants mentioned the existence of a CONITEC report.

Cigarette consumption estimates for 71 countries from 1970 to 2015: systematic collection of comparable data to facilitate quasi-experimental evaluations of national and global tobacco control interventions.

OBJECTIVES: To collect, appraise, select, and report the best available national estimates of cigarette consumption since 1970. DESIGN: Systematic collection of comparable data. SETTING AND POPULATION: 71 of 214 countries for which searches for national cigarette consumption data were conducted, representing over 95% of global cigarette consumption and 85% of the world's population. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Validated cigarette consumption data covering 1970-2015 were identified for 71 countries. Data quality appraisal was conducted by two research team members in duplicate, with greatest weight given to official government sources. All data were standardised into units of cigarettes consumed per year in each country, a detailed accounting of data quality and sourcing was prepared, and all collected data and metadata were made freely available in an open access dataset. RESULTS: Cigarette consumption fell in most countries over the past three decades but trends in country specific consumption were highly variable. For example, China consumed 2.5 million metric tonnes (MMT) of cigarettes in 2013, more than Russia (0.36 MMT), the United States (0.28 MMT), Indonesia (0.28 MMT), Japan (0.20 MMT), and the next 35 highest consuming countries combined. The US and Japan achieved reductions of more than 0.1 MMT from a decade earlier, whereas Russian consumption plateaued, and Chinese and Indonesian consumption increased by 0.75 MMT and 0.1 MMT, respectively. These data generally concord with modelled country level data from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation and have the additional advantage of not smoothing year-over-year discontinuities that are necessary for robust quasi-experimental impact evaluations. CONCLUSIONS: Before this study, publicly available data on cigarette consumption have been limited; they have been inappropriate for quasi-experimental impact evaluations (modelled data), held privately by companies (proprietary data), or widely dispersed across many national statistical agencies and research organisations (disaggregated data). This new dataset confirms that cigarette consumption has decreased in most countries over the past three decades, but that secular country specific consumption trends are highly variable. The findings underscore the need for more robust processes in data reporting, ideally built into international legal instruments or other mandated processes. To monitor the impact of the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control and other tobacco control interventions, data on national tobacco production, trade, and sales should be routinely collected and openly reported.

Measuring Haitian children's exposure to chikungunya, dengue and malaria.

OBJECTIVE: To differentiate exposure to the newly introduced chikungunya virus from exposure to endemic dengue virus and other pathogens in Haiti. METHODS: We used a multiplex bead assay to detect immunoglobulin G (IgG) responses to a recombinant chikungunya virus antigen, two dengue virus-like particles and three recombinant Plasmodium falciparum antigens. Most (217) of the blood samples investigated were collected longitudinally, from each of 61 children, between 2011 and 2014 but another 127 were collected from a cross-sectional sample of children in 2014. FINDINGS: Of the samples from the longitudinal cohort, none of the 153 collected between 2011 and 2013 but 78.7% (48/61) of those collected in 2014 were positive for IgG responses to the chikungunya virus antigen. In the cross-sectional sample, such responses were detected in 96 (75.6%) of the children and occurred at similar prevalence across all age groups. In the same sample, responses to malarial antigen were only detected in eight children (6.3%) but the prevalence of IgG responses to dengue virus antigens was 60.6% (77/127) overall and increased steadily with age. Spatial analysis indicated that the prevalence of IgG responses to the chikungunya virus and one of the dengue virus-like particles decreased as the sampling site moved away from the city of Léogâne and towards the ocean. CONCLUSION: Serological evidence indicates that there had been a rapid and intense dissemination of chikungunya virus in Haiti. The multiplex bead assay appears to be an appropriate serological platform to monitor the seroprevalence of multiple pathogens simultaneously.

Re-emergence of Cholera in the Americas: Risks, Susceptibility, and Ecology.

BACKGROUND: The re-emergence of cholera in Haiti has established a new reservoir for the seventh cholera pandemic which threatens to spread to other countries in the Americas. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Statistics from this new epidemic are compared to the 1991 Peru epidemic, which demonstrated the speed and complexity with which this disease can spread from country to country. Environmental factors implicated in the spread of Vibrio cholerae such as ocean currents and temperatures, as well as biotic factors from zooplankton to waterfowl pose a risk for many countries in the Americas. RESULTS: The movement of people and goods from Hispaniola are mostly destined for North America, but occur to some degree throughout the Americas. These modes of transmission, and the probability of uncontrolled community spread beyond Hispaniola, however, are completely dependent upon risk factors within these countries such as water quality and availability of sanitation. Although North America has excellent coverage of these deterrents to the spread of infectious gastrointestinal diseases, many countries throughout Latin America and the Caribbean lack these basic services and infrastructures. CONCLUSIONS: In order to curb the immediate spread of cholera in Hispaniola, treatment availability should be expanded to all parts of the island and phase II epidemic management initiatives must be developed.